May 5, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update

Happy Cinco de Mayo, everyone! It’s Monday, May 5, 2025, and I’m thrilled to dive into this week’s Monday Touch Point with Team Price Real Estate. We’re unpacking the latest Austin real estate market data, focusing on the six-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, and Burnet). From the new listing to pending ratio to inventory trends and economic updates, here’s everything you need to equip your clients and navigate this dynamic market.

New Listing to Pending Ratio: A Tangible Inventory Increase

Let’s kick things off with our favorite metric: the new listing to pending ratio, the single best leading indicator for the Austin market. For the week of April 28 to May 5, 2025, we saw 1,428 new listings hit the market, with an estimated 150 more expected by 11:59 p.m. tonight, pushing us close to 1,600. Compare that to 330 pending listings, giving us a starting ratio of 0.49. While this is an improvement from last week’s 0.57, it’s still in the 0.5–0.6 range, signaling a substantial increase in inventory.

Last year, this same week had a 0.75 ratio, so we’re lagging, but I’m encouraged by the uptick in pendings. Expect this ratio to settle around 0.65–0.68 as we update over the next two weeks. For context, a ratio below 0.75 means more listings are entering than going under contract, causing inventory to rise. We’re seeing this play out: active listings hit 16,320, up 225 from last week’s high of 16,095 and 21.8% higher than 2024’s 13,396. This is the highest since 2004, with a cumulative new listing to pending difference of 4,273—the largest since then.

Inventory Stress and Market Dynamics

Our Inventory Stress Index (ISI) for April 2025 is at 5.1%, down from 10.3% last April and matching Q4 2024’s low. This low ISI confirms we’re in a buyer’s market, with significant inventory pressure favoring buyers. Expect pricing pressure over the next two quarters—prices will likely dip as inventory continues to climb. The Market Health Index (MHI) at 18.2% further supports this, indicating a buyer-friendly market (below 30%). 

City-level data highlights the hyper-local nature of real estate. Hutto leads with a 3.4-month inventory, driven by builders offering crazy incentives like 3.5% rate buy-downs. However, resale properties in Hutto face challenges competing with new construction. Driftwood, at 11 months of inventory, sees a 168.6% year-over-year inventory increase, while Manor has 84.2% of active listings with price drops. Cedar Park, at 3.66 months, is a seller’s market but up 89.1% from January’s 1.93, so keep an eye on its trajectory.

Pricing Trends: A Bifurcated Market

Pricing tells a fascinating story. The average sold price for April 2025 was $595,275, down 12.71% year-over-year, while the median sold price dropped 18.2% from May 2022’s peak of $550,000 to $449,900. This marks the largest 36-month median price decline on record. However, the top 25th percentile (high-end homes) is only up 1.1% in price, while the bottom 25th percentile is down 3.7%, showing a bifurcated market.

With 13 of 30 cities still appreciating, this won’t last—price per square foot is declining, signaling broader price drops soon. Driftwood leads appreciation with a 21.1% median sold price increase to $1.15 million, while Burnet dropped 20.8%. If today’s the market bottom, using the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.98%, we’ll return to peak values by July 2029.

Economic Outlook and Rates

Economically, rates ticked up an eighth of a point to 6.875% for a 30-year conventional loan, per Robert’s update. Freddie Mac reported 6.76% last week, a slight pullback from 6.83%. The bond market rose 2.8 basis points today after PMI data. Wednesday’s FOMC decision is expected to hold rates at 4.5%, so no major shifts are anticipated. These rates, combined with high inventory, keep pressure on sellers.

Actionable Advice for Agents

Agents, leverage the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing on teamprice.com for a concise, 30-page snapshot of top charts—perfect for listing presentations, buyer consultations, or open houses. It’s updated daily by 7 a.m., consolidating 2,000+ pages of data. For clients, emphasize hyper-local analysis. A seller in Hutto’s resale market needs a different strategy than one in Cedar Park’s seller-friendly zone. Buyers, take advantage of the 5.84 months of inventory and 48.9% of listings with price drops to negotiate strong deals. Let’s keep tracking this market together—visit teamprice.com for the latest insights!

FAQ 

What is the new listing to pending ratio, and why does it matter?

The new listing to pending ratio compares new and back-on-market listings to those going under contract. A ratio below 0.75, like May 2025’s 0.49, indicates rising inventory, favoring buyers. It’s a leading indicator of market trends.

How does Austin’s inventory compare to last year?

As of May 5, 2025, active listings are at 16,320, up 21.8% from 13,396 in 2024. This is the highest since 2004, driven by an 8.6% increase in cumulative new listings and an 8.1% drop in pendings.

Why are some Austin cities appreciating while others decline?

The market is bifurcated. Cities like Driftwood (up 21.1% median price) benefit from high-end demand, while Burnet (down 20.8%) faces oversupply. Hyper-local factors, like builder incentives in Hutto, also drive disparities.

What’s causing the low Inventory Stress Index in Austin?

April 2025’s ISI of 5.1% reflects high inventory (16,320 listings) and low demand (4,837 pendings year-to-date). This low stress favors buyers, putting downward pressure on prices.

When will Austin’s home prices return to their peak?

Assuming May 2025 is the market bottom, with a median sold price of $449,900, the 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.98% projects a return to the May 2022 peak of $550,000 by July 2029.

Daily Market Summary

16,320 (+21.8% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.49 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.73% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.875% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.359% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

​0:01:00 Introducing the New Listing to Pending Ratio

0:03:45 Why the Ratio Matters for Inventory Trends

0:07:27 New Listings Surge to 1,428 This Week

0:10:22 Pending Listings Hit 330, Beating Expectations

0:11:41 Mortgage Rates Update: 6.875% for 30-Year

0:13:45 New Construction: 20% of New Listings

0:16:59 Comparing This Week to Last Year’s Data

0:19:02 April 2025 Monthly Data: 5,937 New Listings

0:22:21 May 2025 Starts with a 0.31 Ratio

0:27:29 Active Listings Reach 16,320, Up 21.8%

0:30:56 Activity Index Drops to 22.9%

0:34:38 Cumulative New vs. Pending Difference Since 2004

0:38:43 Hyper-Local Insights: Hutto vs. Driftwood

0:56:30 Inventory Stress Index at 5.1%: Buyer’s Market

The May 5, 2025 Monday Touch Point analyzed Austin’s real estate market, highlighting a 0.49 new listing to pending ratio, signaling substantial inventory growth . Active listings reached 16,320, up 21.8% year-over-year, with a 5.1% Inventory Stress Index indicating a buyer’s market . Pricing pressures persist, with median sold prices down 18.2% from the 2022 peak, and hyper-local trends vary across cities like Hutto and Driftwood . The Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing was introduced as a key resource for agents to leverage in client presentations .